Japanese new semiconductor Rapidus successfully tested 2-nano chips at a 1,000-year-old factory in Hokkaido in July and publicly tested the finished product to the media. This is also the first time that a Japanese company has produced the most advanced semiconductor components in the country.
As a well-in-class person in the industry, Rapidus's president Junyi Koike looked excited at the conference, but he thought that Rapidus could not relax because the road ahead was still difficult.
As of now, only Tel.com, Samsung and Intel have successfully achieved trial production. The market generally believes that only Taiwan Power is expected to make profits in mass production. Taiwan Power has stated that the yield rate has exceeded 90%, and expects commercial production to begin this fall.
Even if Rapidus has technology, the next question is: where to find enough customers to get full load and transport. The reason why Japan's semiconductor industry declined was not because of the disappearance of top-notch factories, but because of the lack of advanced chip design companies like NVIDIA in the United States.
In addition, most of the equipment and funds are currently provided by the Japanese government. Whether this can continue to lead the Japanese semiconductor and information technology industry (including demand) to revitalize.
Kazumi Nishikawa, head of IT Industry Department of the Japanese Province of Properties, told Japan that even after the start of mass production in 2027, the government will continue to support and assist Rapidus until "stable operation". But he also admitted, "If there is no domestic demand, there is no intention to set up (industry) in Japan."
Currently, countries including the United States are increasing their national support for high-tech industries, and industry policies have become an important key to maintaining economic competition.
Investment banks believe that when a country becomes a shareholder, political logic may override economic rationality, and private capital is difficult to purely participate from an investment perspective because there is a risk of lack of capital laws.
Rapidus currently requires about 5 million Japanese funds for production, mainly from government subsidies, potential customer investments and bank loans, and it seems that it is falling into the trap of "nationalization".
Due to the large-scale mass production plan of 500 million yen, it was formulated based on the business plan in 2023. In the past two years, the current industry focus has shifted from a simple process to improving performance through 3D stacking.
In addition, there are many changes in the industrial environment, but Rapidus does not seem to consider any "Plan B" that can adapt to environmental changes, but instead chooses to push the original plan with all its strength.
If a new company seeks pure private capital (such as an investment fund), it will usually adopt a sequential business plan and start to gradually polish the technology from the prototype manufacturing used for research and development before it can be produced in vectors, otherwise it will not be able to obtain financing at all.
If Rapidus wants to accelerate the full "privatize", it must adjust its strategies more flexibly and avoid being stubborn even though it knows it is unreasonable. This is also a common bad habit of the Japanese government and the industry.
Japan’s state-backed Rapidus needs plan B in pursuit of 2-nm chips Extended reading: Two years of hard work! Rapidus If the mass production fails, Japan's advanced process will be eliminated