Market reports that the TDP (hot design power consumption) of NVIDIA Rubin GPU may increase to 2,300 W, far higher than the previously expected 1,800 W, and is planned to introduce the "microchannel lid" thermal design in the second half of 2026.
The latest report of US foreign exchange JPMorgan Chase (Xiaomong Morgan) pointed out that after preliminary analysis, NVIDIA is likely to replace the cold plate with microchannel plugs in the "dual chip version" of Rubin GPU in the second half of 2026, while the single chip version will continue to be the cold plate-plus heat sink architecture. This means that the adoption process was earlier than expected, and the Kyper rack was originally scheduled to be launched in the second half of 2027 or 2028.
"Microchannel Cable" is one of the most advanced heat dissipation solutions at present, which can directly integrate heat dissipation and cold plate functions at the packaging layer. The design includes a copper substrate engraved with microchannels, a top with a siding plate and a distributor with a cooled liquid inlet and outlet, which can effectively discharge heat from the wafer. Currently, Taiwan has also invested heavily in related layouts.
Xiaomao analyzed that in the second half of the year, Rubin GPU will be a single chip and a double chip version, with different specifications and TDP. Among them, the dual-chip version TDP is as high as 2,300 W, NVIDIA will be introduced into the microchannel tube, while the single-chip version TDP is as high as 1,200 W, maintaining the design of the current cold plate module heat dissipator. As for Vera CPU and Switch IC, Xiaomo believes that cold plates will still be used as heat dissipation components.
Although microchannel pipes are expected to become mainstream in 2027, Xiaomao expects that 2026 will have limited impact on cold plate suppliers' profits. On the one hand, Blackwell (using cold plates) still accounts for a certain proportion of shipments; on the other hand, about 10-20% of single chip versions in Rubin GPUs will continue to use cold plates.
However, with the increase in the number of Kyper machine engines in 2027, microchannel cables will gradually become the mainstream solution. Xiao Mo pointed out that for cold plate suppliers such as Qilin and Double Duck, the urgent task is to ensure that the qualification certification is successfully passed before the 2026 microchannel pipe mass production. At the same time, the growth potential of ASIC cold plate demand in the future is another focus worthy of attention.
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