Taiwan Institute today announced the manufacturing industry climate test points in July, and finally fell five times, turning to the upper limit. Sun Mingde, director of the Taiwan Academy of Scenic and Air Prediction Center, said that the main reason is that the negative factors such as tax responsibilities, exchange rates and China's internal rebellion have faded, and manufacturers have regained confidence. The 232 semiconductor tax responsibilities that the outside world are concerned about are not very concerned, as the United States still needs Taiwan's semiconductor energy, "232 risks are not big."
Taiwan Institute today announced the three major industrial business climate test points. The manufacturing business climate test points in July were 86.80 points, an increase of 1.17 points per month, ending the previous five-month decline, turning to the upper limit. Sun Mingde said that in the first half of the year, manufacturing manufacturers were deeply suffering from the US tax policy, exchange rate fluctuations and the pressures that China can afford to survive. Now the tax liability continues to be clear, uncertainty faded, exchange rate has returned to stability, and the lifting of China's internal rebellion will help boost the confidence of manufacturers.
The outside world is concerned that the 232 US investigation has not yet been released. Trump previously said that the tax rate will increase in the future, "may be increased from the original 100% breath to 300%" whether it will harm Taiwan's high-tech industry. Sun Mingde explained that several technology companies in the United States have invested US$350 billion this year, and will invest in AI infrastructure construction in a total of US$3 trillion within three years. If the semi-conductor tax is 100%, economics estimate that the cost of US companies is 1 trillion.
Sun Mingde pointed out that Google and Amazon may be able to support it, but small and medium-sized enterprises will not be fully covered; AI data centers are the key to the output of US services. If the US really enrolls 100% of the semiconductor tax, it will definitely damage AI and its own basic construction, which will also affect the output of service. Therefore, he believes that the 232 semiconductor tax will not be very risky to Taiwan, because the US wants to use Taiwan hardware to do its own software business.
Zhang Jianyi, president of the Taiwan Institute, reminded that AI is now a "real investment", but we still need to pay attention to bubble risks in the future.
Sun Mingde supplemented, personal computers appeared in 1980, and the real popularity was in the 1990s; there was an Internet in the 1990s, and the real popularity was after 2000s; there were smart phones in the 2000s, and the real popularity was after 2010. Every time technology innovation comes from commercialization, there are times when there is a gap. AI still has no real benefits in the initial investment and money-making stages. "Now it depends on your will, not on production capacity." After arriving, be careful of bubble risk.
Sun Mingde said that the economic growth of the United States and Taiwan this year relies on AI. Although the highlight economic performance has also led to the continued trade friction between Taiwan and the United States. In the future, we must pay attention to Trump's combined punches, which not only involve taxes, but also moves such as exchange rate. Moreover, this is not just a battle, but also a lasting battle.
In terms of service industry, the service industry climate test point in July was 87.80 points, a slightly lower than 0.33 points. Due to the limited decline, the service industry's views on the situation remained unchanged. The climate test of construction and business operations in July was 93.79 points, down 0.96 points, ending the previous short-term upward trend and falling again.
Liu Peizhen, general manager of the Taiwan Institute of Industry Database, pointed out that the government's policy of cracking down on housing speculation and credit control has greatly reduced the transaction volume in the pre-sale market, but the supply volume of the housing market is still at a high level, which has put pressure on the supply and demand of the residential market. In the past six months, the outlook for the large-scale environment is still full of changes, which has also continuously suppressed the buying atmosphere.
Liu Peizhen believes that unless the central bank relaxes currency policies or housing market control measures, the housing market will continue to be in a cold atmosphere.